Rand performance: Will the strength hold in 2026?
Loading player...
GUEST – Andre Cillier, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE
The rand has delivered one of its strongest performances in years, rallying around 13% against the US dollar to trade near R16.50 even as South Africa’s domestic economy shows clear signs of strain. In this interview, currency strategist Andre Cillier unpacks the growing disconnect between a firm rand and weak local fundamentals, including a manufacturing sector in contraction and GDP growth that remains subdued.
We explore what’s really driving the currency: global risk appetite, a softer US dollar, attractive carry trades and improving inflation dynamics rather than strength on the factory floor. The conversation looks ahead to 2026, examining whether US interest-rate policy, recession risks, commodity prices and South Africa’s maturing currency framework can keep the rand supported, or whether rising risk premiums and fragile growth could test the sustainability of its rally.
The rand has delivered one of its strongest performances in years, rallying around 13% against the US dollar to trade near R16.50 even as South Africa’s domestic economy shows clear signs of strain. In this interview, currency strategist Andre Cillier unpacks the growing disconnect between a firm rand and weak local fundamentals, including a manufacturing sector in contraction and GDP growth that remains subdued.
We explore what’s really driving the currency: global risk appetite, a softer US dollar, attractive carry trades and improving inflation dynamics rather than strength on the factory floor. The conversation looks ahead to 2026, examining whether US interest-rate policy, recession risks, commodity prices and South Africa’s maturing currency framework can keep the rand supported, or whether rising risk premiums and fragile growth could test the sustainability of its rally.
